), I obtained a copy of this message, along with the subsequent debate. Horoscopes: What is the difference between a real horoscope and magazine forecasts? Civis staffers I’ve spoken to agree that, in the words of one of them, CEO Dan Wagner “only talked about the tweet and client complaints around the tweet” when announcing the decision. Clinton increased the Democratic lead by millions of votes in states she was going to win anyway, but this had no effect on the outcome of the election.

“But look at the Democratic Party’s recent history: Al Gore was more liberal than Bill Clinton, John Kerry was more liberal than Al Gore, and so on. Yo. “I think these new coalitions will be maintained. In a normal election year, we would have lost 10 Senate seats.”. Soon after George Floyd’s death, alongside peaceful mass protests there was a substantial amount of looting and vandalism in Minneapolis and a few other cities. But the percentage of educated people has soared since then.

At a time when the media is so polarized and social media seemingly keeps people cocooned within their ideological bubbles, how possible is it to change voters’ minds these days? Democrats have also benefited during this time from the fact that their presumptive nominee, Biden, long stood out from the field in opposing the unpopular ideas of the police abolition movement. I assure you it is worth your time and full attention.

Stephanie Valencia of Equis Research told me she didn’t see a problem with BLM rhetoric and Latino voters. At the time of this interview, just days before Tuesday’s presidential election, the polls seem to favor the Democratic nominee. parties to openly embrace cosmopolitan values and win elections; “There are swing votes everywhere. The following day Shor apologized for the tweet; shortly thereafter, he was dismissed from his job. And he asks how that role can be quantified.

Well, New York magazine has published a long interview with Shor in which he refuses to talk about that controversy, but instead offers analysis of the election and the electorate. But when he analyzed the data further, Shor became convinced this wasn’t the right answer. So what I advised my clients is to always keep to the general formula on Israel. A former staffer for Bernie Sanders responded to Shor’s tweet on Progressphiles to say “we need to recognize the role data plays in this conversation.” And in particular, “using it to dictate how BIPOC [Black, Indigenous, and people of color] should feel and protest is harmful.”. world. “Luckily, in 2018 there was a blue wave, so we won two [Senate] seats. So we’re really concern trolling to for the purposes of increasing democratic turnout. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. campaigning on the things they’d always wanted to, but which had My colleague Zack Beauchamp in Vox said this is a case of something that is “non-controversial even among left-wing intellectuals.”. A pedestrian walking past a vote sign with a depiction of Edvard Munch's "The Scream" artwork, on a security fence near the White House in Washington, October 31, 2020. But over the previously been too toxic.

The punchline to all this is that concerns of people like Shor about whether a possible protest backlash could boost Trump, so far, seem to be wrong. There were only a small number of TV “My polls were wrong in 2016, like everyone else’s,” Shor told Haaretz. David Shor was the Obama team’s ‘in-house Nate Silver’ in 2012, but the data scientist was caught out by Trump’s triumph in 2016. He tries to help Democrats understand how to win elections. Shor, citing research by Princeton political scientist Omar Wasow, suggested that these incidents could prompt a political backlash that would help President Donald Trump’s bid for reelection. “One of my favorite statistics is that the median voter is 50 years old and watches five hours of television a day. Trump’s relative success with Latinos right now looks like it may not matter since he’s losing the election badly overall. And he shows that this is likely because nonviolent protests successfully get the protesters’ perspective on the media agenda, and that violent repression in particular generates sympathetic press coverage. In 2012, Shor’s star was on the rise. flip side of this is that this educated 4 percent still ran the On May 28, David Shor, a political data analyst, sent a controversial tweet. But the fact is there was a widespread and somewhat influential push to argue that even discussing the possibility of a backlash was racist and wrong. That primarily means identifying issues it’s helpful for liberals to talk about and how it’s helpful to talk about them.

The story that makes the most sense to And while it’s not exactly a crisis of free speech, since people are always free to go do something else with their lives other than work in progressive politics, it’s nonetheless going to be a big problem for progressive politics if it becomes impossible to have frank conversations around the tactics and substance of race-related issues. Instead, the dialogue followed a pattern in progressive circles that often involves making evidence-free assertions about how members of various groups feel. What happened is that whites who didn’t go to college and had always voted Democratic switched and voted for Trump, because they had conservative views on immigration and liberal views on economics.”. People with unsound views are able to get operatives fired and render them unhirable. This is a general issue about norms of discourse rather than a specific issue about one person’s tweets. New York Magazine called him the campaign’s “in-house Nate Silver,” referring to the FiveThirtyEight forecaster. Under the circumstances, Shor was raising the exact right issue — sustained peaceful demonstrations could help the cause enormously, especially if met (as they in fact were) by an abusive state response, but sustained acts of violence and property destruction could hurt it. What Is NotMilk, the Latest Alternative Milk on Store Shelves? While I’m on a political kick, please allow me to direct your attention to this interview with political strategist and data analyst David Shor, by Eric Levitz for New York Magazine. To be sure, there are other views on Biden and Hispanics. Luckiest Zodiac Signs: The Seal of Jupiter, Unintelligent design: How evolution has made our bodies imperfect. “Look at 1930,” he says. Here, traditionally, 70 to 80 percent of the Jewish vote goes to the Democratic Party.”, Shor believes the reasons for this are complicated. On May 28, Shor tweeted out a … All of which is to say that the situation in the real world is not nearly as dire as those who spend too much time marinating in the Twitter hothouse think. The Democratic Party is mostly run by sensible people, while the Republican Party is mostly run by Donald Trump. The important issue here is the underlying presumption that the tweet was racist. — Benjamin Dixon (@BenjaminPDixon) May 28, 2020. That makes it easy to dismiss the whole thing as a tempest in a teapot or a weird one-off with no broader implications.

He finds that nonviolent activism was effective in shifting election results, particularly nonviolent activism that’s met with violent police repression. The 2018 midterm elections strengthened Shor’s belief that Trump produced long-term structural change in American politics. They’re not spending a lot of time on Twitter; they’re watching the evening news. In the Atlantic, Yascha Mounk reported that Shor appeared to have been fired because of the tweet, which Civis denies, though the company will not elaborate. both parties were run by just about the most cosmopolitan segments The Democrats won 52 percent of all votes cast for the two main parties – a phenomenon dubbed “the blue wave.” It was enough to win them a majority in the House of Representatives, but not enough to seize control of the Senate. So, as a result, campaigns centered around this cosmopolitan They were joined in this by the vast majority of Black elected officials around the country. “When something like this happens, there’s a tendency to look for excuses – to say ‘It was Comey’s letter’ [10 days before the election, the then-FBI chief announced he was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails] or ‘It was the undecided voters who decided at the last minute.’ I realized that it couldn’t have been either one of these things.”. Minimizing black grief and rage to “bad campaign tactic for the Democrats” is bullshit most days, but this week is absolutely cruel. When it comes the current presidential race, Shor is pleased by how the Democratic Party is performing, despite the constraints of the new political reality he describes. And so did center-left parties Suddenly, in many European countries, Jews have shifted very hard to the right. At just 20 years old, he was put in charge of statistical forecasting for President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign. The race is stable. “We won’t publicly discuss internal personnel matters out of respect for our employees and alumni,” Amanda Moss, Civis’s communications director, tells me. And for that to happen, people need to be able to do what Shor did — raise questions about trade-offs, backlashes, and potential pitfalls even when emotions are running high. Be sure to video it for our viewing pleasure. law, and all these things.

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